{"id":21587,"date":"2025-05-15T14:49:56","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T09:49:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cissajk.org.pk\/?p=21587"},"modified":"2025-06-10T08:01:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T08:01:04","slug":"indias-false-flag-gamble-in-pahalgam-and-south-asian-deterrence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/?p=21587","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s False Flag Gamble in Pahalgam and South Asian Deterrence"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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On 22 April 2025, a tragic attack in Pahalgam, a tourist spot in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), killed 26 civilians, mainly tourists hailing within India. Pakistan strongly condemned the unfortunate incident and was open to any \u201cneutral and transparent\u201d investigation<\/a> into the Pahalgam attack in IIOJK. However, India\u2019s accusations of an alleged involvement of Pakistan with no proven evidence left the region at risk of an outright war between two nuclear-armed states.<\/p>

On May 7th, India launched its Operation Sindoor<\/a> and initiated massive air strikes against Pakistan with missile and drone attacks to avenge the Pahalgam incident. The Indian air strikes in Pakistan resulted in the loss of public infrastructure, worship places, and innocent civilian lives including women and children. Pakistan strongly condemned India\u2019s provocative actions and called it a \u201ccowardly and unlawful act of war\u201d<\/a>. Additionally, on May 9th, India carried out multiple missile strikes on Pakistan Air Force (PAF) bases, including the Noor Khan, Muridke, and Shorkot airbases.\u00a0India used BrahMos, long-range supersonic cruise missiles, to launch the attacks on Pakistan. India follows a recurring pattern of attacking Pakistan, a nuclear-weapon state, through devastating missiles that threaten the airspace of Pakistan, violating international law.<\/p>

In response to India\u2019s unlawful operation and continued drone and missile attacks, Pakistan retaliated by launching Operation Bunyanun-Marsoos<\/a> (Iron Wall), in defence of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Pakistan\u2019s retaliatory military operation crushed Indian aggression and re-established conventional deterrence. Pakistan effectively showed synergy in air, land, sea and cyber domains. As part of the operation, multiple Indian military sites and air bases were targeted and reportedly destroyed including the BrahMos missile depots, S-400 air defence system, and cyber strike, which disabled 70% of India\u2019s air capability. As noted by Radio Pakistan, the precision strikes wiped out Indian bases<\/a> at Pathankot, Sirsa, Bathinda, Akhnoor, Halwara, Udhampur and artillery in Dehrangyari, Mankot. Brigade Headquarters at Bhimber Gali, KG Top, Rajouri MI Center and Uri depot were also decimated by the PAF airstrikes. Notably, during the air combat, India also lost its 6 fighter jets, including the French-manufactured 4.5 generation Rafale,<\/a> which caused New Delhi to face international humiliation.\u00a0A press conference by the Director General of Pakistan\u2019s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) noted that \u201cwe targeted 26 military sites as well as the facilities that were used by India to launch cowardly attacks<\/a> on innocent civilians.\u201d It was stated that Pakistan\u2019s response was precise, proportionate, and remarkably restraint.<\/p>

Since becoming the world\u2019s seventh nuclear power in 1998, Pakistan has substantially relied on nuclear deterrence as a cornerstone of its national security and has effectively maintained the strategic balance in the region. Pakistani strategic thinkers argue that nuclear deterrence in South Asia has effectively prevented large-scale conventional wars. Moreover, India\u2019s idea of a limited war fought under the nuclear overhang has been effectively discounted, with the capability of Pakistan\u2019s retaliatory action.<\/p>

The Indian aggression against Pakistan has pushed the region closer to a potential all-out-war. In the 2019 crisis, the conventional conflict had soon escalated into a nuclear rhetoric with Prime Minister Modi claiming that India had prepared for a \u201cQatal ki Raat\u201d (night of murder)<\/a> on 27 February. However, Pakistan\u2019s robust nuclear deterrence provided no room for a limited conventional war under the nuclear overhang and effectively deterred Indian aggression. A conversation published by BASIC on 12 March 2025<\/a>, Arms Control Advisor to Pakistan\u2019s Strategic Plans Division Brigadier Dr. Zahir Kazmi stated that \u201cPakistan had also made it clear that for every Indian missile prepared, three Pakistani missiles were ready, demonstrating the credibility of its deterrent posture.\u201d The recent past has witnessed India employing the false flag operations, particularly in IIOJK, to accuse Pakistan\u00a0 cross-border terrorism aimed at tarnishing its international reputation.<\/p>

The Pahalgam incident coincided with the high-level visit of the US Vice President James David Vance to New Delhi which raised suspicions about its timing and intent. All indicators point towards it being a false flag operation conducted for strategic gains, these politically motivated false flag operations not only threaten regional peace and security but also exacerbate broader geopolitical tensions. India\u2019s pattern sheds light on a wider strategy that deflects attention from its internal fault-lines, including the marginalization of Muslims and the ongoing repression of Kashmiri people.<\/p>

The recent false flag operation by India is not only an attempt to malign the image of Pakistan but to adversely affect its national interests. Swiftly after the incident, India suspended the World Bank brokered Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)<\/a> of 1960. Subsequently, India downgraded the diplomatic relations with Pakistan by reducing its diplomatic staff from the High Commission of Pakistan in India. It also discontinued all third-party trade with Pakistan, and shut down the integrated check post at Attari, along with prohibiting the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visa exemptions scheme to Pakistani nationals. However, the Indian aggression was not limited to the diplomatic, economic, political measures against Pakistan, the ideologically driven Modi regime authorized its armed forces the \u2018operational freedom\u2019 to craft a severe military action against Islamabad.<\/p>

In response to India\u2019s offensive diplomatic measures of 23 April 2025, Pakistan announced punitive actions, which included the closure of its airspace<\/a> for Indian flights, suspension of the 1972 Simla Agreement, closing the Wagah Border Post, and subsequently closed all visas under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES). Pakistan\u2019s closure of its airspace for Indian flights has caused heavy losses to its commercial flights, with over 1,000 Indian flights affected so far.<\/p>

Since 1971, India has been conducting recurring false-flag operations<\/a> against Pakistan. In 2000 the Indian army conducted a false flag operation in occupied Kashmir before the visit of the United States (US) President Bill Clinton to India. The motive was to defame the image of Pakistan in the US. Likewise, the Indian parliament attack of 2001, which resulted in Indian security forces\u2019 failure, was immediately charged against Pakistan. Similarly, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the Pathankot airbase attack and the 2016 Uri attacks were India\u2019s bogus claims against Pakistan, picturing it as a terrorist state. Pulwama is yet another stark example of India\u2019s staging of false flag operations. Resultantly, on 26 February 2019, India had launched airstrikes in Pakistan\u2019s Balakot, which resulted in a national humiliation for New Delhi when its 2 aircrafts were shot down by the PAF and one pilot, Wing Cdre Abhinandan, captured.<\/p>

Ironically, India has been involved in territorial disputes with nearly all its neighbouring states, and its assertive military posture often positions it as a self-perceived regional hegemon,<\/a> often considered\u00a0 the aggressor in regional conflicts. India\u2019s continuous military aggression, particularly the \u201csurgical strikes\u201d against Pakistan under the pretext of counterterrorism, can result in strategic and diplomatic setbacks to both countries.<\/p>

In view of the above, the South Asian strategic equilibrium remains under strain due to India\u2019s increasingly assertive military posture, its pursuit of advanced defense technologies through strategic partnerships, and its ambitions to assert itself as a self perceieved regional hegemon. India\u2019s aggressive strategic posture, driven by Hindutva ideology, threatens Pakistan\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity, increasing tensions and pushing South Asia to the nuclear threshold. These developments risk the erosion of deterrence stability that has thus far prevented the outbreak of a major wars in the region.<\/p>

Author<\/strong><\/p>

Ms Zamzam Channa<\/strong> is a research assistant at Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 22 April 2025, a tragic attack in Pahalgam, a tourist spot in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), killed 26 civilians, mainly tourists hailing within India. Pakistan strongly…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":21829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[235,238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kashmir-conflict-state-and-society","category-latest"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/76"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21587"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21804,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21587\/revisions\/21804"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/21829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}