{"id":22396,"date":"2025-07-14T14:41:24","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T09:41:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cissajk.org.pk\/?p=22396"},"modified":"2025-07-16T04:59:32","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T04:59:32","slug":"debunking-the-icbm-scaremongering","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/?p=22396","title":{"rendered":"Debunking the \u2018ICBM Scaremongering\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Missiles are an important capability for offensive set of capabilities that can be used for counterforce and counter-value strikes. Russia-Ukraine<\/a> conflict and Iran-Israel\u2019s 12-day conflict<\/a> are recent examples of it. In this context, Pakistan also emphasizes on developing a credible missile force, commensurate with its legitimate security needs. Vaddi and Vipin Narang\u2019s article in Foreign Affairs<\/a> magazine has sparked a renewed debate about the contours of Pakistan\u2019s national threat spectrum and its military capabilities. It claims that Pakistan is developing Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) that can reach the mainland US. The rationale given behind such technological developments is that Pakistan wants to deter the US from a preventive disarming strike and deterring America from aiding India in the wake of India-Pakistan conflict. The scaremongering surrounding Pakistan\u2019s defense capabilities have often unjustifiably rattled western security and strategic analysts since Pakistan\u2019s achievement of nuclear capability. Consistent efforts have been made to demonize Pakistan\u2019s limited conventional and strategic capabilities. The lack of evidence and sound reasoning in the Foreign Affairs magazine article has drawn sharp criticism from Pakistan\u2019s diplomatic, and strategic community.<\/p>

The aforementioned article mentions no proof or sources that can prove Pakistan\u2019s technological advancement in the journey of making such extended range strategic weapons. So far, no satellite imagery or any testing site or even the type and nature of the missile has been mentioned. To develop such technology, the prerequisite infrastructural development is vital, but no such evidence has been presented in this regard.\u00a0 This is the most visible lacuna in the narrative that has been tried to construct around Pakistan\u2019s missile capability.<\/p>

Technological advancements have always been subservient to the doctrinal postures in Pakistan\u2019s security and strategic landscape, not the other way around. Pakistan has shown no intent or need to build such long-range weapons in its defense posture. This shows that Pakistan\u2019s threat perception has not changed, and the threat gaze is still focused on India alone. The claim in the Foreign Affairs\u2019 article is not backed by any policy or doctrinal evidence or any such statement by Pakistan.<\/p>

The only shred of evidence that has been given in the article about Pakistan\u2019s development of such missiles is the alleged \u201cUS intelligence report\u201d. If deconstructed properly, even the US has not provided any source, data, or any sort of official attribution that may convincingly make a case for such accusations against Pakistan. Thus, this information does not qualify as evidence against Pakistan\u2019s making of ICBMs. It might be a part of certain objectives of Biden\u2019s administration to sanction Pakistan while it was on its way out.<\/p>

Pakistan\u2019s nuclear strategy and doctrinal posture has always been India-centric, and its technological development and acquisitions are a proof of it. Pakistan\u2019s nuclear doctrine is based on \u2018Full Spectrum Deterrence\u2019 (FSD) policy under the concept of \u2018credible minimum deterrence.\u2019 Pakistan\u2019s missiles have a maximum range of 2750 kms<\/a>, as noted by General Khalid Kidwai, the former head of Strategic Plans Division (SPD) that covers every nook and corner of Indian territory.<\/p>

The most convincing evidence of Pakistan\u2019s defense posture being India-centric comes from the recent report of Federation of American Scientists (FAS) report<\/a> on the targeting strategies of nuclear armed states published in June 2025. It argues that \u201cPakistan\u2019s nuclear targeting strategy is relatively unique because, in contrast to the majority of nuclear-armed states, it appears to be aimed exclusively at one country: India. Pakistan\u2019s doctrine is thus designed solely to deter an overwhelming conventional or nuclear attack from a single adversary.\u201d<\/p>

Moreover, if Pakistan looks at the Indian threat spectrum, India claims to have two military adversaries i.e. Pakistan and China. But Indian missile ranges exceed far beyond the regional threats with Agni V<\/a> having almost 7000 kms<\/a> range that can target even in Europe and the Far East. It makes absolutely no sense for Indian security planners to have such long-range weapons in their inventory when they do not consider any nation as an adversary other than Pakistan and China. But unfortunately, no such objective analysis has been developed to view Indian advancements and strike capabilities far beyond its threat spectrum.<\/p>

According to the article, the rationale behind Pakistan\u2019s building ICBMs has been to deter US\u2019s involvement in a future India-Pakistan conflict in support of India. It basically exposes Indian claims of being a net security provider in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) that it can\u2019t even counter and deter Pakistan in the military confrontation and needs US\u2019 help. If India needs US\u2019 help to militarily engage Pakistan, then America should seriously rethink the Indian role in the US\u2019 Indo-Pacific strategy.<\/p>

This biased and hypocritical treatment of Pakistan\u2019s missiles program irrespective of their avowed intentions and capabilities should be dismissed and rejected. Creating such narratives can fuel insecurities and trust deficit between Pakistan and the US. There remains a dire need on the part of the US to clear any such misgivings as evidence to counter such claims coming out of Washington itself as the FAS\u2019 report argues. Pakistan has always made sure that its nuclear and conventional capabilities are primarily to deter India and not target any other state. As stated earlier, Pakistan\u2019s capability being solely to deter India shows Pakistan\u2019s responsible state behavior and a genuine commitment to the stated goals of its nuclear policy. It also exposes the Foreign Affairs\u2019 article as a baseless allegation against Pakistan which aims at scaremongering regarding Pakistan\u2019s missile program.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Missiles are an important capability for offensive set of capabilities that can be used for counterforce and counter-value strikes. Russia-Ukraine conflict and Iran-Israel\u2019s 12-day conflict are recent examples of it.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":22427,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[234],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nuclear-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/84"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22396"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22424,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22396\/revisions\/22424"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22427"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}