{"id":23810,"date":"2026-10-27T09:43:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T09:43:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/?p=23810"},"modified":"2026-10-27T09:47:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T09:47:50","slug":"indian-development-of-autonomous-drones-and-their-implications-in-strategic-stability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/?p=23810","title":{"rendered":"Indian Development of Autonomous Drones and Their Implications for Strategic Stability"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n

The emergence of new technologies and artificial intelligence in the military is creating new challenges for states worldwide. Autonomous drones are becoming increasingly important in future warfare, especially in South Asia, where India has been investing heavily in them thereby impacting strategic stability and triggering arms race.<\/p>\n\n

In May 2025, the India-Pakistan crisis<\/a> escalated into one of the most dangerous confrontations in decades, with drones at the center of the fighting. The crisis saw the largest aerial combat in decades, along with massive drone use. Pakistan claimed that India used drones and loitering munitions against targets inside Pakistan, while India claimed that Pakistan sent 300 to 400 drones toward 36 locations in a single night. Although both countries are nuclear-armed states and neither wanted escalation, the crisis showed how quickly a conflict can spiral and how much of the work technology can do.<\/p>\n\n

India has deployed between 2,000 and 2,500 drones by the middle of 2024<\/a>, spending $3.61.45 million and $421.69 million in total. The development of autonomous drones of India, which are used for surveillance and tactical operations, has enhanced its defense and military capabilities. The research program of India focuses on autonomous marking of targets. The distinctive development in India\u2019s drone program are Swarm drones<\/a> which have the capability to carry out complex missions.<\/p>\n\n

India\u2019s continuing investment in its defense systems is affecting regional security and, more broadly, contributing to strategic instability in South Asia, the risk of conflict with Pakistan is increasing. The use of AI in modern warfare has raised further threats, such as inadvertent launches, miscalculation, and a lack of flexibility, and, above all, the absence of human oversight. The danger is not limited to minor escalations or miscalculations. It also extends to nuclear facilities, delivery vehicles, and launch pads, any of which could quickly turn into an all-out war.<\/p>\n\n

These growing security concerns about unmanned systems expose serious loopholes in the legal frameworks currently governing drone operations, particularly in South Asia, a region shaped by the security-insecurity paradox. The frameworks with the most serious gaps include the Ministry of Defense permits<\/a> and the Civil Unmanned Aircraft Rules 2024<\/a>, which require strict registration and clearance procedures.<\/p>\n\n

The first gap lies in the different mandates of the two systems. Civil aviation regulation prioritizes the safety of commercial flights and the mapping of air zones, while military defense protocols operate separately. The divergence between them creates a dangerous blind spot, which non-state actors, including terrorist groups and smugglers, are actively exploiting. These actors are enhancing the technology with AI, making it more dangerous to state targets. They build do-it-yourself hardware, adapt open-source flight software, and use preprogrammed autonomous routes to bypass defenses such as geofencing, ushering in a new era of geographic risk.<\/p>\n\n

Established laws and norms governing the use of technology need to be upgraded, because they were built on the assumption of human command alone. This raises questions about accountability, tracking, and wider implications. First, the gap between civil aviation protocols and military defense protocols must be bridged. Second, states should clearly define and adopt a doctrine for autonomous weapons and make it transparent, in order to avoid escalation into an uncontrolled arms race or escalation between nuclearized adversaries. Such preventive measures would reduce the risk of crisis and help build an environment of legal regulation and accountability. As these technologies become more accessible, it is getting harder to contain their dual-use character and proliferation effects. Ultimately, these scenarios threaten strategic stability between India and Pakistan, and the question is how both states can adopt regulatory mechanisms and governance doctrines that stop war before it reaches their doorstep. The question we are left with is whether to join an arms race or to build restraint.<\/p>\n\n

Author:<\/strong> Ghanwa Arshad, Research Intern, Center for International Strategic Studies, AJk.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The emergence of new technologies and artificial intelligence in the military is creating new challenges for states worldwide. Autonomous drones are becoming increasingly important in future warfare, especially in South…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":23811,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[238,230],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest","category-strategic-stability-in-south-asia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/147"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23810"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23810\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23817,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23810\/revisions\/23817"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23811"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}