{"id":23854,"date":"2026-11-05T09:08:11","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T09:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/?p=23854"},"modified":"2026-11-05T09:11:43","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T09:11:43","slug":"how-ai-could-undermine-deterrence-stability-between-india-and-pakistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/?p=23854","title":{"rendered":"How AI Could Undermine Deterrence Stability between India and Pakistan"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly transforming modern warfare, with implications extending beyond the battlefield to nuclear deterrence. Its integration into military surveillance, intelligence, command and control, and targeting systems is changing how states identify threats and make decisions during crises. In South Asia, where India and Pakistan have a history of military confrontations and mutual strategic distrust, these developments raise serious concerns about strategic stability.<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0On 10 October 2026, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, during Exercise Tarang Shakti, emphasized<\/a> the importance of AI, unmanned systems and faster military decision-making in future warfare. For two nuclear-armed neighbours, this raises a critical question: Can AI strengthen deterrence through improved situational awareness, or undermine it by accelerating decision-making and increasing the risk of miscalculation?<\/p>\n\n

India’s expanding military application of AI illustrates these concerns. India has increasingly employed<\/a> AI-based technologies to monitor its borders with Pakistan. In October 2023, it reportedly deployed<\/a> 140 AI-based surveillance systems along its borders, incorporating cameras, sensors and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) feeds. India’s investment in space-based surveillance further strengthens its intelligence capabilities by integrating information from multiple satellites. Institutionally, India established<\/a> the Defence AI Council (DAIC) and Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA) in February 2019 to oversee and facilitate military AI development. The operational implications of these developments became particularly evident during the May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis. Lieutenant General Rajiv Kumar Sahni stated<\/a> that AI applications were used during Operation Sindoor to integrate information from multiple intelligence sources and improve battlefield awareness. The Indian Army also deployed the SANJAY Battlefield Surveillance System<\/a>, which integrates information from ground and aerial sensors to generate a common operational picture.<\/p>\n\n

India’s advances in missile and surveillance technologies could further intensify these concerns. In March 2024, India successfully tested<\/a> MIRV technology under Mission Divyastra, demonstrating the ability of an Agni-V missile to deliver multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). In May 2026, India also conducted<\/a> another flight trial of an Advanced Agni missile equipped with MIRV technology. Meanwhile, its hypersonic programme advanced through successful scramjet ground tests<\/a> in January and May 2026. Although these tests do not establish the deployment of operational hypersonic glide vehicles, they demonstrate India’s continuing investment in advanced missile technologies.<\/p>\n\n

The growing use of unmanned systems adds another dimension to this challenge. India has invested<\/a> in heterogeneous swarm UAV systems and expanded its drone inventory. During the May 2025 confrontation, both countries employed<\/a> drones and missiles, while India reportedly used Harpy and Harop loitering munitions against Pakistani air-defence infrastructure. These operations demonstrated the potential of unmanned systems to test and overwhelm air-defence networks.<\/p>\n\n

Taken together, India’s advances in AI, satellite surveillance, missile technology and unmanned systems could influence Pakistan’s assessment of the regional military balance. The integration of AI into command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems could accelerate the military OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) cycle, leaving political and military leaders with less time to independently evaluate incoming information. Consequently, faster military responses may come at the expense of careful judgement and diplomatic intervention.<\/p>\n\n

This is particularly significant in the India-Pakistan context, where military confrontations can escalate rapidly. Increasing reliance on AI-assisted intelligence, surveillance and targeting could compress such decision-making timelines in future confrontations.<\/p>\n\n

To mitigate these risks, India and Pakistan should strengthen existing crisis-management mechanisms and establish safeguards for military AI. First, both countries should reinforce their military hotlines and introduce dedicated protocols for communicating and verifying AI-generated warnings, suspicious military movements and potential threats to strategic infrastructure. The existing communication mechanism between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) provides a foundation for addressing emerging technology-related risks. Second, decisions involving nuclear command and control must remain subject to meaningful human supervision, independent verification and established authorisation procedures. Moreover, AI-generated assessments should support, rather than replace, human judgement. Both countries should also initiate bilateral discussions on responsible military AI practices, particularly concerning autonomous targeting and strategic command systems.<\/p>\n\n

Author: Syeda Masooma Naqvi, Research Intern, Center for International Strategic Studies, AJK.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly transforming modern warfare, with implications extending beyond the battlefield to nuclear deterrence. Its integration into military surveillance, intelligence, command and control, and targeting systems is…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":150,"featured_media":23855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[229,238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-emerging-technologies-strategies-and-warfare","category-latest"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23854","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/150"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23854"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23854\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23859,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23854\/revisions\/23859"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23854"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23854"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strategicforecast.cissajk.org.pk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23854"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}