Beyond restraint and tactical inclinations, symbolism and prestige are in play to recalibrate the protracted balance of South Asia’s strategic stability. Endeavors of global recognition and thrust for power projection have instigated India to commence certain actions that can prove detrimental not only to south Asian hotspot but can rattle the globally sustained peace. To strive for regional dominance, India has been attributing considerable intensification in its military arms integrating them with robust technological advancements. These provocations can eventually reactivate perpetual arms race, exacerbate strategic instability and contribute towards regional insecurity.
Refuting principles of deterrence theory and perceptions of balance of power India’s uncontrolled missile progress and military modernization has ultimately impaired assumptions of region’s strategic stability and tenets of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). India’s gestures since the past decade have indicated serious strategic ambiguities in south Asia signaling ‘Inability of Nuclear Deterrence to assure strategic stability’.
India’s leap in hypersonic technology, MIRVs, ASATs and thrust for ICBMs are setting the stage for a strategically asymmetric environment undermining deterrence and crisis stability. Under India’s comprehensive strategic program India has been conducting periodic missile tests for cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles. In 2024 Agni- V, an ICBM with MIRV integration attributing range of more than 5500km was tested. Agni-VI is under developmental phases featuring an estimated range of 16000km. The Shaurya ballistic missile encompassing a spectrum of about 10000km and speed of Mach 7 is also emulating the course of development. The new generation, and recently tested, Agni-P hypersonic variant (Mach +5) possesses MIRV technology with solid fuel and canisterisation that will amplify its performance, precision and maneuverability. India’s hypersonic and MIRV collaboration will ultimately shrink the prevailing constrained response window for Pakistan and heighten perils for pre-emptive strikes, compelling Pakistan towards ‘use it’ or ‘lose it’ dilemma.
Kerala Aero Expo of 2025 exhibits India’s evolving strategic doctrines and aspirations of global prestige driven by advancements in missile technologies spanning from Agni series to Brahmos II (Russia-India co-developed hypersonic missile infused with Mach 7), Hypersonic glide vehicles HGV and repeatedly trailed Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle HSTDV; a technological base for hypersonic cruise missiles powered by scramjet engines. Development of K-series SLBMs from K-15 to K-5 (5000km) and engineering K-6 with an approximate range of 8000km (Intercontinental range) will entail parts of Europe, Asia and even North America. K-6 acquisition with submarines bolsters its launching range, elevates regional apprehensions and escalates strategic tensions among hostile counterparts. In contrast Pakistan’s longest-range arm for credible minimum deterrence is Shaheen -III falling with in an estimated range of 2750 km aimed sheerly at upholding strategic parity with India.
India’s missile modernization evidently depicts its worldwide ambitions propelled through status- seeking behavior and regional dominance pursuits. Under mission Shakti, India reflects its prowess in strategic space frontier by becoming 4rth country after US, Russia and China to acquire ASAT capability geared to neutralize satellites, communications and fortifying counter force measures. Amidst fifth-generation hybrid warfare synchronization of military, cyber, space and electronic proficiencies are pivotal in fulfilling covert operations and to achieve military objectives. Integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar SAR, Automatic Target Recognition ATR, AI annexed Earth Observation EO etc. have substantially reinforced India’s ISR tendencies and secures its strategic standing in the global elite club. Strengthening of Indian multi layered defense system incorporating both endo and exo-atmospheric interceptors backed by Israeli and Russian radars have deepen its resilience to absorb any pre-emptive strike threat. These strategic shifts have compromised the south Asian calculus of conventional deterrence and strategic balance essentially between India and Pakistan.
Advancements in Indian arsenals and prestige driven modernization have prompted Pakistan to recalibrate its posture amidst dislocating deterrence equilibrium which in turn can unlock new paradigms of arms race, dilute nuclear threshold and raise prospects of inadvertent escalation.
As a counter to Indian uncontrolled proliferation and global nuclear strike projection, Pakistan has consistently articulated itself as a nuclear responsible state reflected in maintaining credible minimum deterrence, de-escalatory strategies and arms control prudence. Pakistan’s frequently asserted of its posture to be India-centric and strongly advocates for global nonproliferation, arms control and disarmament. In contrast persistent defense and technological support from global powers expedited India’s unregulated strategic ascent that may facilitate in global instability, reignite regional arms race and escalate risks of nuclear confrontation.
In order to mitigate challenges from Indian prestige driven military transformation whilst upholding its responsible nuclear posture, Pakistan must urge for international scrutiny of India’s unchecked military buildup and give recommendations of binding India through global arms control frameworks. Simultaneously to sustain strategic deterrence its essential for Pakistan to upgrade and reform its strategic assets embedding them with AI, cyber, space and electronics. Ababeel’s induction (MIRV) against Indian multi layered Missile Defense systems and S-400s marked an optimal deterrent enhancement. Likewise calculated upgradations in current missile inventory equipping them with MIRV and hypersonic potential, ability to take nuclear payloads, transitioning to solid- propellent and canisterized systems etc. will pay for higher performance, blitzkrieg response and will strengthen second strike. Strategic cooperation with China in advanced weaponry, strategic tech, defense systems and orbital assets are crucial for a credible strategic posture and counter force mechanisms. Ensuring triadic deterrence via SSBN deployment is another significant milestone to preserve second-strike capability and regional strategic equilibrium. Decentralizing command and control centers and investments in ISR infrastructures serve as further necessary steps in the process. Beyond initiatives in strategic calculus, policy initiatives for confidence building measures, transparency, crises communication mechanisms, track-II diplomacy etc. must run parallel coupled with global diplomatic engagement. It’s time not merely to envision deterrence and strategic stability but how to make it more secure and viable through bilateral trust, negotiations and moderation.
CITATIONS:
- India’s Missile Ambitions: A Threat to the Global Peace – Stratheia
- Strategic stability in South Asia post-Pahalgam | Pakistan Today
- The K-5 Conundrum: India’s Rising Missile Reach and the Global Blind Spot – CISSAJK
- Hypersonic Weapons and Deterrence Stability in South Asia – Stratheia
- What India’s MIRV test adds to the ‘strategic trilemma’ in South Asia – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
- Speed Without Substance? India’s Hypersonic Missile and Implications for Strategic Stability – South Asian Voices
- The Triad of Technology and Its Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia – South Asian Voices
Author: Khawaja Touqeer Ahmed, Intern CISS AJK.
