Historically outer space has been a symbol of the human progress, since it represents a field of mutual scientific exploration and knowledge beyond the political borders of the Earth. On the contrary, in today’s world, the orbit of the earth describes a concerning aspect. It is becoming overcrowded with dead satellites, discarded rocket bodies, collision debris and weapon tests. We are already polluting space long before we can seriously be intending to inhabit space. The new crisis requires change of global mindset: on rivalry and militarization on orbit control, based on what can be described as “space junk diplomacy”.
Space debris is not a farfetched issue anymore. As documented by NASA, Orbital Debris Program Office, tens of thousands of objects that can be tracked and millions of minute pieces orbit the earth. These bodies travel faster than 25,000 kilometers per hour, meaning there by a small piece of debris can destroy a functional satellite or put the astronauts at the International Space Station (ISS) in danger. Furthermore, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that humanity has put approximately 12,170 satellites into space during the space age that began in 1957, of which 7,630 are currently in orbit, although only approximately 4,700 are functional. It would imply that there are almost 3000 spatial objects flying around the earth at extraordinary speeds, combined with other large and harmful pieces of debris such as upper stage rockets. Similarly, this risk is further enhanced by the threat of “Kessler Syndrome”, a situation where collisions cause cascading debris, which cause additional collisions and even makes whole sets of orbital space unusable over decades.
These objects pose more than a theoretical or hypothetical threat. Between 1999 and May 2021 e.g., the ISS has performed 29 debris-avoiding maneuvers, three of which were in 2020 alone, as NASA officials indicated. Most of the smaller fragments of space debris were a resultant explosion of used rocket bodies in orbit but there are other fragments which were forcefully placed. As an example, in January 2007, China deliberately shot down one of its outdated weather satellites as a highly-publicized experiment in using anti-satellite weapons that created over 3,000 objects of tracked debris and possibly 32,000 or more smaller ones as well. According to experts, the massive bulk of that junk is in orbit today. There have also been inter-orbital collisions of spacecraft. The most renowned of these types of incidences took place in February 2009 when the defunct Russian Kosmos 2251 satellite crashed into the operational communications satellite Iridium 33, creating almost 2,000 softball-sized pieces of debris.
Furthermore, in 2019, hundreds of pieces of debris were created by India’s “Mission Shakti”. Every one of these bits, varying in size from enormous to insignificant, represents a separate space object over which India has exclusive jurisdiction and control. These fragments are at high risk of colliding with one another and possibly other satellites, resulting in the formation of even more debris. Furthermore, India was completely aware that the test would produce debris. Such space advancements continue taking place till date with “high risk and near miss” incidents of the satellite and debris collision. Thus, not only overcrowding the Lower Earth Orbital (LEO) but also accelerating the first stage of the Kessler Syndrome.
Not only such incidents would destroy important services, but it would also increase the cost and risk of future space missions effectively locking humanity out of important orbits. We are reliant on these satellites to navigate, do banking, telecommunication, weather forecasting, disaster management and even military operations which are present in this ever more hazardous atmosphere. Moreover, outer space is also part of the global commons which is regulated by the international law, mainly being the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. Thus, neither the orbit can be owned by a state, nor debris recognizes boundaries as well. Therefore, this space debris is a technical phenomenon, which should be viewed as a diplomatic and geopolitical issue. A fragment of space debris created by one country can damage or destroy the satellite of another country a few years later, without the slightest warning and with minimum liability. There is no country, no matter how technologically developed, which could take care of and clean the orbit of Earth.
Similarly, the issue on the danger of anti-satellite (ASAT) weaponry challenges the norms of responsible state conduct in the outer space. By using these ASAT tests, states destroy or incapacitate satellites, thus generating a significant presence of space debris. Therefore, raising the chances of collisions of on-orbit space objects to compromise the safety of space assets. These pieces fail to distinguish between civilian and military satellites, allies, and enemies. Thus, they are effectively weaponising the orbital environment as a whole.
Therefore, the concept of Space Junk Diplomacy comes into play. Aiming to implement arms control rational to the space governance. Neither does it seek to end technological advancement nor to curtail space activity. Rather, it is concerned with responsible conduct and common restraint in outer space. For instance, the U.S and its allies have been advocating standards that would curb practices that generate space debris, such as through attempting to ban direct ASATs tests and legislative initiatives to abolish space junk. In response to the 2021, Russian ASAT testing the United Nations General Assembly passed a US led resolution on “Destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile testing.” The resolution calls on countries to commit to not conduct destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests.
Similarly, important parallel from the history can be devised that the competing powers at that time realized that the unrestrained development of weapons created mutual vulnerability. Nuclear test bans, missile treaties and other arms control accords were not the result of trust but the understanding that the way to survive was through mutual restraint. Through transparency, verification, communication the risk of miscalculation can be reduced and thus, lowering the chances conflict of escalation. The same issue is faced in the orbital environment today.
In addition, further practical steps may involve international agreements to prevent the ASAT tests that produce debris, compulsory end-of-life de-orbital plans of satellites, better coordination of collision-avoidance and enhanced dissemination of space situational awareness information. There are existing organizations, such as, the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) which offer platforms for dialogue, however, their role must be updated to modern day space challenges.
Space junk diplomacy should not be limited to only the space powers. With the emergence of new spacefaring countries and private entities, the orbital landscape has altered tremendously. The mega-constellations managed by companies like SpaceX and OneWeb are promising to provide the whole world with connectivity, but they also bring in an enormous congestion of objects, by overcrowding the LEO. Lack of well-coordinated international standards would also mean that commercial competition would inadvertently increase the degradation of the orbital space, defeating services that these systems are supposed to offer.
Therefore, through incentivizing, upholding of rules and generating reputational pressure, private actors can be persuaded to optimize their outer space activity. Responsible satellite design, timely deorbiting and data sharing can be promoted by international standards supported by national licensing regimes. Diplomacy should in this regard fill the gap between governments, private sector, industry, and international institutions, and it is important to understand that the sustainability of the orbit is the responsibility of all.
Hence it is pertinent to look towards the challenges to the space junk diplomacy as well. As the global space economy is growing at an alarming rate, with trillions of dollars in the estimated worth in the next few decades, thus diplomatic measures are also time sensitive. Simultaneously, geopolitical competition is finding its way into space, which is emphasized in the strategic doctrines and military planning documents. A severe accident due to debris could easily lead to a regional political crisis especially when the attribution is disputed or misunderstood especially when a satellite is military or dual-use.
On the contrary, the idea of meaningful cooperation in an ever so fragmented globalized world seems like a far off ideal. However, the traditional arms control regimes were also developed at the time of severe rivalry and global crisis. Similarly, the space debris is not an issue in which essentially the common values and strategic alignment are necessary to cooperate, it requires the awareness of mutual vulnerability. As a matter of fact, space junk diplomacy can be among the limited areas where collaboration can be possible and as a matter of urgency.
Finally, how humanity views the planet in the future will depend on how it is currently treated in regard to its orbit. The orbiting space serves as the foundation for future research, scientific advancement, and potential extraterrestrial habitation. Any attempt to cause it to deteriorate would be a cosmic replication of the environmental mistakes being made on earth.
Space junk diplomacy provides an avenue to avert havoc just like the successes of arms control succeeded in averting disaster during the first nuclear age. The international community faces choice between turning space into the next arena of unregulated competition, pollution, a place for common good, moderation, and collusion. In order to ensure that humanity has a future beyond the planet, it should first know how to take care of the space immediately above the planet.
Author: The author is a research fellow at the Strategic Vision Institute, SVI. She is also a visitng faculty at Bahria and International Islamic University. She has done her Mphil from NDU and can be reached at ridaanwar3@gmail.com or at X @RidaAnwaar
