The 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran resulted in the most intense escalation in the Middle East in a decade. It also revealed a critical gap in Iran’s Military capability, its inability to protect its skies. Israel employed the majority of its aerial assets to establish aerial supremacy over Iranian skies. Multiple targets were engaged, including assassinations of senior military commanders, intelligence officials, and nuclear scientists, as well as targeting of missile launchers and missile storage facilities. This resulted in a deterioration of Iran’s ability to respond to an Israeli attack. Nevertheless, Iran responded with its ballistic missile and drone arsenal, which resulted in significant damage in Israel despite having a multilayered missile defense shield. This, however, could not stop Israel’s continued aerial bombardment. This shows a significant gap vis-à-vis its air power and its air defense capabilities, which Iran was unable to fulfill either domestically or with the help of its closest ally, Russia. Iran can use its strategic partnership with China as a new potential customer of its recently proven fighters.
The use of the air force by the Israeli side and the use of ballistic missiles by the Iranian side characterized the 12-day Iran-Israel war. US intervention in the conflict provided both sides an off-ramp to announce a ceasefire; however, Iran incurred significant damage to its nuclear facilities and the assassination of its leadership, as well as nuclear scientists. This is because Iran lacked the formidable air defense and air force assets to deny Israel entry into its airspace, and now the Iranian military establishment should seriously be considering how to safeguard Iranian airspace in future escalations. The most viable option for Iran to revamp its air force can potentially be China, with its recently battle-tested platforms, such as J-10Cs, as well as JF-17s. These aerial platforms were thoroughly tested in a face-off which witnessed one of the largest beyond-visual-range (BVR) fights in modern warfare, where the Pakistan Air Force employed Chinese-made fighters like J-10C, as well as Pakistan-China jointly produced JF-17s, which shot down multiple French and Russian-made fighters in use by the Indian Air Force.
Defense cooperation between Iran and China could be initiated to build up their air force, and history suggests Iran and China’s defense collaboration is not something unusual. In June 2020, China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic partnership where China will potentially spend $400 billion for steady and discounted oil. The draft of the deal has not been made public however, the draft potentially included $400 billion of Chinese investments, including banking, telecommunications, ports, railways, health care and information technology as well as deepening military cooperation as well as joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence-sharing, over the next 25 years. Now it should be evident more than before that Iran can potentially benefit from this deal, considering its vulnerability in the air vis-à-vis the 12-day war. Iran currently operates outdated U.S.-made F-14s and F-5s as well as Russian-made MiG-29s. While the Iranian Air Force has maintained the operational readiness of most of its fighter jets through domestic efforts, these aircraft remain technologically outmatched in modern combat scenarios, particularly against the far more advanced Israeli Air Force.
There was always an argument about the reliability of Chinese Military equipment among Western scholars, but after the India-Pakistan May stand-off, any doubts should now be resolved. Iran could leverage its strategic partnership with China to modernize its military with Chinese-made equipment, facing minimal initial integration challenges, particularly with standalone systems like the HQ-9 air defense system. Since much of China’s military hardware is derived from Russian designs, and China itself operates a substantial amount of Russian equipment, compatibility issues would be reduced. However, integrating more complex systems such as Chinese fighters, AWACS, and advanced air defense networks would require significant time and resources. China’s robust manufacturing capacity ensures a reliable supply, making long-term military modernization feasible for Iran. Iran could accelerate its acquisition of Chinese-built air assets, given their effectiveness, proven recently, like air defense systems, along with advanced fighters. The Pakistan Air Force successfully employed the jointly built JF-17s and J-10Cs so as to down multiple advanced Western and Russian fighters during the 2025 India-Pakistan standoff.
As evident from Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and political leadership, Israel operated over the Iranian skies with ease and had little to no problem bombing sophisticated infrastructure.. Iran may have survived the aerial bombing this time, but next time the bombing may be more severe and devastating, and Iranian ballistic missiles may no longer carry the same threat they carry now. Similarly, in the 12-day war, Iran fired fewer and fewer missiles day by day, which suggests that Iran may be running out of either launchers, which were targeted by the Israeli air force, or its missile inventory was depleting. During the war, there was a hesitation from the Russian side towards Iran; the Russians did not help much with regard to military equipment. This is maybe due to Russia’s strategic compulsion in Ukraine, as well as its reluctance due to Russia’s strategic relations with Israel. On the other hand, Israel was helped and justified by its allies with the launch of its unprovoked attack on Iran, especially by the U.S. and Israel’s NATO allies. So, in the long run, China may make sense for Iran.
The contemporary era is characterized by great power politics, and multiple regional blocs appear and assert their influence on global politics. Iran is part of the Middle East, and there is a growing realization among Gulf countries to adopt a regional approach for conflict resolution, crisis management, economic integration, and bilateral cooperation. Arab countries unanimously condemned the recent conflict, and they extended diplomatic and moral support to Iran, overcoming historical animosities and disagreements. Iran needs to build its air force, and for that, it needs China, as Russia is off the table. Russia and China are strategic partners of Iran, but in ongoing geopolitics, China is more viable for Iran than Russia. Russian President Putin has recently made a statement regarding the ongoing conflict that “Israel has 2 million Russian-speaking Jews”. Russia and Israel have conducted multiple coordinated operations in Syria and may have coordinated in the recent Regime change operation in Syria. China, on the other hand, has no such compulsions regarding its relations with Israel. China would be willing to sell its air defense systems and fighter aircraft.
The 12-day Iran-Israel conflict underscored a critical vulnerability in Iran’s military posture: its outdated air force and inadequate air defense systems. While Iran’s missile and drone response inflicted damage, it failed to prevent Israeli air dominance, resulting in significant strategic losses, including assassinations, infrastructure destruction, and the degradation of Iran’s retaliatory capability. This imbalance exposed Iran’s urgent need to modernize its aerial defense, a goal it can no longer expect to achieve through Russia, given Moscow’s constraints and ambiguous stance. China, with its battle-tested platforms like the J-10C and proven defense technologies, emerges as the most viable partner. The Iran-China strategic partnership, signed in 2020, provides a foundation for expanding military cooperation, including technology transfer and airpower modernization. Chinese platforms, successfully employed by Pakistan during its 2025 standoff with India, offer both credibility and compatibility with Iran’s needs. Given the growing regional and global polarization, Iran must act decisively to close its airpower gap to deter future aggression and defend its strategic assets. Partnering with China not only offers immediate upgrades but also ensures long-term supply and training potential. The recent war has made it clear: without credible airpower, Iran’s deterrence will remain weak and its sovereignty increasingly vulnerable.
Authors: Syed Raza Abbas,
The author is currently working as a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad. His research focuses on the Middle East and its security issues, strategic stability, and Nuclear Non-Proliferation.
Shamil Abdullah Saleh,
The author is a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad. He pursue their research on the security issues, geopolitics, and strategic stability of the Middle East.
