On August 20, 2025, India carried out the flight test of its already inducted Agni-V Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) from the Integrated Test Range site located in the coastal region of Odisha. According to the Press Information Bureau (PIB) of India, this particular flight test ‘validated all operational and technical parameters’. However, the problem is not with the test alone, but with the timing of the test as it has been perceived threatening development not only for the regional, but for the global security order as well.
The Indian categorization of Agni-V missile from ICBM to Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) raises certain questions among strategic circles globally. A renowned US think tank Center for Strategic and International Security (CSIS) has a separate designated program with regards to missiles known as Missile Threat. It categorized Agni-V based on its stated range of 5000 km as ICBM and facts do not lie.
However, the broader significance of this development is hard to be ignored. Agni-V is strategically a very important arsenal in the inventory that India possesses right now as it is nuclear capable delivery vehicle and as recently as last year in March, India equipped the very same Agni-V delivery vehicle with the Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) technology. The integration of MIRV further provided strategic leverage to India, but threatened the already fragile deterrence equation of South Asia.
MIRVing a delivery vehicle is cost effective as a single missile can carry up to 5-8 warheads that can each follow its own independent targeted trajectories upon the terminal phase and can hit multiple targets, simultaneously. MIRVing is starkly destabilizing as it has the ability to overwhelm the adversary’s air defence mechanism.
Whereas, another theory with regards to the re-classification of the Agni-V from ICBM to IRBM is heavy payload that resultantly reduces the range of this delivery vehicle. Now, the debate follows, why? The possible response is, in the absence of stealth bombers like B-2 that were used recently by the United States for dropping bunker buster on Iranian nuclear facilities, India could use Agni-V with heavier payload as a probable bunker buster weapon for the pre-emptive striking against the nuclear facilities of Pakistan to try to disarm the country in a crisis situation.
Diplomatically, India is trying to re-establish a more flexible, yet proactive ties with another regional rival China. Relations of both the nations have been on the verge since 2020 deadly border clashes. The confrontation and cooperation are two different sides of the same coin in Indo-China relations, but the recent visit by the Chinese foreign minister to India and Indian PM Modi’s willingness to participate in the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit that will be held in China from 31 August to 1st September is predicted an ice-melting between them.
Analysts have described the evolving ties between India and China as a result of the recent imposition of tariffs by US on India for importing oil from Russia amidst the Russia-Ukraine war and also threatened to double the tariffs if India does not discontinue. While, the actual shift in the Indo-US relations has emerged in the aftermath of May, 2025 developments when both nuclear armed neighbours of South Asia – Pakistan and India – engaged in conventional cross-border escalations. The crisis was averted from getting out of control by the mediatory intervention of United States, India not only denied, but criticised US role in de-escalation, despite initial backdoor channel diplomacy which proved to be the beginning of the deterioration of ties between both states.
In the evolving scenario, Indian offensive missile program must not be discounted of the fact that it is a dangerously threatening development for the global security and stability based on the increasing ranges. Additionally, the fresh Notice to Airman (NOTAM), India issued on 15 August to vacate the extended area of around 5000 km range from the coast of Odisha, is a possible signalling that further testing is underway. Experts have predicted that Agni-VI – which is believed to be possessing 8000-10000 km of range with a heavy payload and 14000-16000 km with lighter payload – might be underway for a near future testing. Agni-VI, if successfully tested and operationalized, will outclass all of its predecessor.
The Indian missile program in the recent years have taken an aggressive turn by the incorporation of ranges going beyond the regional parameters, cemented the argument of prestige driven strategic ambitions of India. Agni-V which lies in the ICBMs category can cover all of Pakistan and China, but terming it IRBM in the aftermath of the recent test has put further suspicions with regards to weapons utility and applicability by inducting heavier payload in the delivery vehicle. The beyond regional ranges of Indian ballistic missile program should not be overlooked, instead they need to be scrutinized impartially by the international community, as it could not only destabilize regional security, but also threatens the global strategic stability.
Author: Muhammad Usama Khalid is a Research Officer at the Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), BUITEMS, Quetta.
