On August 20, 2025 India conducted a test of Agni V missile. This is the latest test in a string of missile developments India has pursued since 2024 alone. India has conducted a number of missile tests that indicate pursuit of increasingly sophisticated missile technology that is destabilizing for South Asia. This includes test of a of an Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) mounted on Agni-V Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) in March 2024, the test of Agni-Prime in April 2024, a hypersonic missile test in November 2024. These tests are only the tip of the iceberg with India pursuing missile developments on land, air and sea. It is also reportedly, pursuing the 12000 km range Agni VI capable of reaching Europe and mainland U.S. Thus, it is ironic that Indian writers like Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi in the article “How to Survive the Nuclear Age” published in Foreign Affairs in July 2025 suggested that Pakistan is developing an ICBM that would threaten the U.S. It advises U.S. policymakers to perceive Pakistan in the same problematic category as North Korea. In fact, it is India, not Pakistan that is aggressively pursuing missile developments, especially ICBMs that can threaten the U.S. This has implications for global and South Asian security.
Indian pursuit of MIRV technology, mounted on the 5000 km range Agni-V boosts its land based capabilities and puts all of Pakistan, China and part of Europe in its range. It also puts it among a few countries that have MIRV capability including the U.S., France, UK, Russia, and China. Essentially, MIRV technology allows a single ballistic missile to carry and deploy multiple warheads, and strike different targets simultaneously. MIRV capable missiles can overwhelm the adversary’s ballistic missile defence system with multiple warheads; increase survivability when deployed on submarines, and strengthens second-strike capability. In South Asian context the technology can be destabilizing by increasing India’s preemptive first strike temptations. While China is less likely to be affected by Indian MIRV capability due to its larger nuclear arsenal vis a vis India, Pakistan with its modest nuclear forces and no BMD systems would be more vulnerable. The timing of India’s latest Agni V missile is interesting as it come in the wake of US decision to levy additional tariffs on India. Also interesting is India’s insistence on calling the Agni V an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) while any missile 5000 km and beyond is globally considered an ICBM. However, ultimately Indian MIRV capability could develop ranges long enough to reach mainland U.S. and threaten its security.
Similarly, India has also pursued Agni-P, canister-launched missile, with a range of upto 2000 km. It conducted a test in April 2024. It is significant because canisterization means warhead and missile is mated and stored together. It enables India to store the missiles longer and essentially reduce the time required for launch. Agni-P would be able to cover significant parts of Pakistan and impact the strategic balance in South Asia due to greater accuracy and cold launch system. It is escalatory, reducing the response time in a crisis, as well as raising Indian first-strike temptations.
Even more dangerous and destabilizing is India’s pursuit of hypersonic missile technology. A hypersonic missile is one that has five times the speed of sound or Mach 5. India tested a hypersonic missile with 1500 km range in December 2024. It first tested High-Speed Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV) unsuccessfully in June 2019, again in September 2020 and in January 2023 using a scramjet engine with Mach 6 speed. India is also developing hypersonic cruise missile BrahMos-II, in collaboration with Russia which is expected to be operational by 2028. Only a handful of countries have hypersonic missile technology namely U.S. Russia, China, while North Korea, Japan, France and Australia are working on development. Now India has joined the global hypersonic missile race. The introduction of hypersonic missile in South Asia is likely to have an adverse impact on deterrence. The nuclear armed countries India and Pakistan have a short missile flight time of about 5-7 minutes which will be further shortened due to the speed of the hypersonic missile, reducing it to a few minutes. This would compress the Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act (OODA) loop, or give compressed time to decision makers to assess and respond to incoming threats, increasing the risks of misperception and miscalculation. In addition it will increase India’s first strike temptations. With a precision strike weapon India would be tempted to launch a first strike, immersed in a false sense of security that a counter strike by the adversary would be absorbed and defeated by its ballistic missile defence system. Thus, hypersonic missiles would South Asia bring more instability to the region and would make it yet more volatile. As India develops increasingly sophisticated hypersonic missile technology, it will also be able to target countries beyond South Asia, perhaps the U.S. mainland as well.
India has also pursued a myriad of missiles on land, air and sea. Its sea-based missile force consists of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) 700 km K-15 Sagarika reportedly already deployed on INS Arihant, the K-4 with 3,500 km is under development, the cruise missile Nirbhay with 1000 km range, ship-launched ballistic missile (ShLBM) Dhanush with 400 km range. In addition, India already has two operational nuclear powered submarines, INS Arihant and INS Arighat, and is developing 2 additional SSBNs, S3 and S4. It is already working on the next generation of S5 class SSBN.
India has also been pursuing Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) capabilities comprised of indigenous and acquired systems. The former consists of Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) for longer range missile interception and Advanced Air Defence (AAD) for short and medium range ballistic missile interception, while India has also acquired 5 battalions of S-400 from Russia at a cost of 5.5 billion, of which 3 have already been delivered and deployed along China and Pakistan borders. S-400 has a 400 km range and a capability to intercept 80 targets simultaneously. In August 2025 India conducted test of integrated air defense weapon system (IADWS), that will form part of layered national BMD system. The IADWS is designed to counter low and mid-altitude targets such as drones, cruise missiles, helicopters and some aircraft. India’s pursuit of BMD systems is destabilizing in South Asia since it strikes at the very notion of mutual vulnerability that is the basis of nuclear deterrence. Especially, it would have a negative impact on India-Pakistan deterrence equation. While BMD systems provide only partial protection and even the most advanced systems like the ones developed by the US do not have hundred percent interception capability, they do give the possessor state a false sense of security. Thus, Indian pursuit of missile defence is likely to increase first strike temptations and encourage brinkmanship in crises.
While India has been aggressively pursuing missile developments at land, air and sea, Pakistan has a limited ballistic and cruise missile program as a mainstay of its deterrence against India. Pakistan has no ambitions to be a regional or global power, and only seeks to secure itself against a hostile India. Pakistan has a mix of short and medium range ballistic missiles. Pakistan conducted very few missile tests in 2024-5. The only tests Pakistan conducted were of Shaheen II in August 2024 and SMASH in November 2024 which is a ship launched ballistic missile with 350 km range. In addition, in May 2025 Pakistan tested surface-to-surface missile, the Abdali with 450km range. Its longest range missile is Shaheen 3 with a 2750 km range. Pakistan has no other ambitions than to deter India. Thus, most of its missile force is geared towards a threat from India. Any suggestions that Pakistan is developing longer range missiles is sans rationale and any substantiation.
Indian pursuit of air, land and sea based missiles, hypersonic missile technology, a BMD system, is not only destabilizing for South Asia but has the potential to be a threat for Europe and US as well. In South Asia, it creates first strike temptations, increases brinkmanship on India’s part, it is escalatory and makes the region even more volatile. Internationally, India could become a rival for major powers. India’s missile developments are advancing at a fast pace. Its ICBM capabilities are already advanced enough to reach Europe and America. Its MIRV technology and BMD could acquire enough sophistication to threaten countries beyond South Asia. While India so far had the support of the US who turned a blind eye to its overtures, yet in the evolving nature of the events, how the the western threat perception regarding Indian missile development changes would be interesting.
Author: Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, Research Fellow, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI)
