When the Allied powers cracked the Enigma Code – an enciphering machine developed by German forces to communicate with their allies – the dynamics of World War changed. What if the powerful encryption algorithms (protecting strategic and nuclear assets) around the world are also becoming vulnerable to leakage, not by hackers but due to leaps in quantum computing? A quantum computer utilizes qubits through massive parallel processing powers that enable it to perform numerous functions simultaneously, unlike conventional computers that work on 0 or 1 bits and execute a single task at a time. The hypothetical scenario to illustrate the operational nature of quantum computing can be visualized as an intelligence agency that is required to catch a target in a building comprising three hundred rooms. A conventional computer will search rooms sequentially, but a quantum computer will be readily present in every room all at once, giving a swift outcome to conduct strategic operation.
Likewise, quantum capabilities possess immense implications for states as an emerging technology, given their potential to redefine a nation’s approach to cyberwarfare and digital defenses, such as securing communication or strategic assets. Defense experts believe that the state operationalizing quantum-related cyber-capabilities can shift the balance of power dynamics in their favor. For Instance, Pentagon spokesperson Dr. Lisa Hernandez deliberated that “Whoever possesses quantum supremacy will write the rules of 2st-century warfare.” Why? Given the fact that big data is becoming a bedrock of every industry in the existing era. It determines how governments conduct decision-making, businesses operate, and societies evolve. This data is secured through cryptography by using algorithms like RSA to maintain end-to-end encryption. In other words, plain data is converted into unreadable text that can only be accessed through a key to decrypt it in its true nature. Quantum computers, unlike conventional computers, have the potential to retrieve cryptographic information and hence poses threats to cyber infrastructure worldwide. Quantum algorithms such as Shor’s have the ability to break encryption algorithms like the RSA key in a matter of seconds. The state of affairs demonstrates that a nation that wields quantum computing capabilities will have the ability to decrypt critical information on strategic assets of adversaries.
Defense strategists are already foreseeing this threat as a surveillance strategy, and there are suppositions that states might be stockpiling encrypted data of their adversaries to decrypt it in the future through quantum computing capabilities under the pretext of “harvest now and decrypt later phenomenon.” While these instances reflect on the offensive nature of quantum computing capabilities that might operationalize in the future, states are proactively investing in these technologies to develop quantum-proof systems and protect their strategic assets as a defensive endeavor. In order to accelerate cryptographic agility due to the challenges associated with quantum computing, there is a strive to develop quantum-resistant cryptography. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released its draft of the Cybersecurity Whitepaper that demonstrates the need for using modular cryptography practices (modifying or replacing components that are at the risk decryption without altering whole infrastructure), and hybrid approaches of utilizing post-quantum cryptography in collusion with classical computers.
A defensive endeavor to deploy quantum-safe system is a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) Network, which has an in-built key to secure communication while exchanging information through cryptographic protocols. China’s Micius satellite, which was launched in 2016 is a representation of QKD Network. The satellite conducted long-distance quantum-encrypted conference communication with Australia because it retained a key (sequence of photons produced by laser light) for decryption of information. However, recent research observes certain vulnerabilities in the Micius satellite because it reflects a slightly deflected timing of photons that can be differentiated as real or fake signals through ultra-sensitive equipment to decipher the key. Additionally, Chinese researchers developed the first quantum microsatellite (Jinan-1) in March 2025 that enables secure communication with South Africa through satellite and multiple compact, mobile ground stations for swift implementation and widespread deployment. While China is focused on space applications of quantum capabilities, Europe is experimenting with its commercial deployment. Toshiba Europe transferred quantum-encrypted information over a 254 km fiber optic network. The trials and emerging application of QKD reflects the protective mechanism and defensive postures embraced by state when traditional cryptographic methods becoming vulnerable to quantum-powered decryption. However, achieving this quantum ascendency requires addressing nontrivial constraints such as distance limitations in optical-fiber based quantum signal communication, infrastructure costs, and technical fragility of quantum signals to errors like atmospheric interference, specialized code-breaking equipment.
When it comes to the offensive side of quantum computing, there is no tangible evidence of a cyberattack executed through quantum technology to decrypt government or defense data. But the absence of such an instance should not negate the risk associated with technological evolution in quantum capabilities. The very reason justifies why nation states are investing heavily in quantum technology. A comparative assessment of investment in quantum technology indicates that Chinese government allocated the largest funding ($10 billion) for quantum research compared to 1.8 billion allocated by the US under its National Quantum Initiative Act and €1 billion under EuroQCI by the European Union. States are striving to maintain unbreakable cyber-capabilities and government communication, along with enabling an ecosystem for quantum research through collaboration between the private sector, startups, and universities to innovate cryptography protocols, quantum software, processing components, and algorithms.
The absence of quantum computers in contemporary technological environment makes encryption algorithm theoretically less vulnerable in today’s world. The strategic challenge calls for the need to develop quantum-proof digital security, given the risks associated with “harvest now, decrypt later” strategies. Therefore, the R&D investment in quantum technology, from China’s Micius satellite to U.S. National Quantum Initiative Act, and the EuroQCI quantum network reflects the strategic intent of nations to develop quantum advantage for the future. There is an urgent need to regulate the quantum computing sectors through international norms and agreements to reduce the destabilizing risks associated with these technologies. The decisions made by governments today will define the forthcoming patterns of collaboration and confrontation in this field.
Author: Janeeta Fazal is a geopolitical analyst and researcher with expertise in international security, U.S.–China relations, and the governance of emerging technologies. She holds an MPhil in International Relations from the National Defence University. Her previous work centers on the role of technology in shaping global power dynamics and international security in the digital age. She has experience working with think tanks, government institutions, and NGOs.
