India aspires for a regional hegemony as India’s conventional and strategic forces rapidly grow up both on land and in sea. India through the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has been developing several mega strategic projects such as the ICBMs, MIRVing, BMDs, SLBMs, TNWs, hypersonic missiles, and parts of emerging technologies such as anti-satellite, drones, and lethal autonomous weapon systems. India never lags behind in increasing the ranges of its delivery systems that goes beyond the South Asian region. All these weapon systems not only make India appear more aggressive and offensive in South Asia, but also such strategic imperatives would further boost up India’s aspiration for regional hegemony.
With an immense juggernaut increase of conventional and nuclear forces, the Indian security leadership would aspire to opt for an escalation dominance strategy. It is a known fact that India spends multiple times more on defence than any other country in Asia. It has become one of the leading arms-importing countries. Credible sources also indicate that India is the fastest growing nuclear weapon state. India has more nuclear weapons than Pakistan. Without putting up a restraint, India will continue to increase its nuclear weapons along with the related delivery systems fuelling an unending arms race, crisis instability and risk of escalation in the South Asian region.
India has been intervening directly or indirectly into the affairs of many South Asian countries, including other vulnerable countries such as Afghanistan by dangerously playing out its proxies against Pakistan. It had a serious border conflict with China more recently. It keeps a strategic aspiration for waging a limited war against Pakistan under the nuclear threshold. Under the banner of the so-called “New Normal”, it opted for preventive strikes such as the 2019 and May 2025 conflicts risking for escalation to a serious level. It undermines the US vital security and economic interest in the region despite having an increasing strategic partnership.
Considering its “Act East” policy, India continues to proclaim the Indian Ocean as India’s ocean that in turn may push the US from the Indian ocean region. In that context, India develops a number of nuclear-powered submarines with longer ranges targeting not only Pakistan and China, but also the vital security interest of the US in the Indian ocean region. More importantly, India is trying to increase its naval bases in the broader Asia-Pacific region. All these strategic imperatives across the board provide India the incentives to dominate the region while undermining the economic and strategic interests of the other players including that of Pakistan.
While critically analysing the empirical evidence on the failures of leading players to become the regional and/ or global hegemon, a renowned Professor of Harvard University, Stephen M. Walt in his recent research article “Hedging on Hegemony” argued that states “in the modern world, in short, trying to become a regional hegemon has failed more than 80 percent of the time. And the failures were not just minor setbacks: They were unmitigated disasters for the governments that made the attempt. At a minimum, pursuing regional hegemony did not make any of these states more secure, which casts doubts on one of offensive realism’s main prescriptions.”
Despite having an aspiration for becoming a regional hegemon of the region, India may never be able to become a successful hegemon of the region for obvious reasons: a) it has an acute security rivalry with a credible nuclear weapon state Pakistan. b) It has a border issue with China as it fought a short war in 1962 and experienced many border clashes with China. c) it continues to have many unresolved issues with Pakistan, China and other South Asian countries. d) while punching above the weight, it undermines the vital security and economic interest of other leading players in the system such as the US and rising China in the broader Asia-Pacific region. e) it still does not have the economic and material sources much needed to become the regional hegemon.
In fact, India can never be a regional hegemon in its true sense despite having the ambition for such an imperative. With all such weakness and major gaps, any attempt to become a regional hegemon will potentially risk crisis instability, more serious military conflicts, and dangerous escalation. Therefore, India needs to be cautious enough to move on while taking up equally on-board other players of varying interests in the region. This in turn will boost cooperation under security dilemma, co-existence, and competition for stability in the broader region without aspiring to wage any type of war against others in the region.
Author: Dr. Zafar Khan is a Professor of International Relations and Executive Director at Balochistan Think Tank Network, Quetta.
