On 24 September 2025, India successfully carried out the launch of the Intermediate-Range Agni-Prime missile from a rail-based mobile launcher system under a full operational scenario. According to the DRDO, “this next-generation missile is designed to cover a range of up to 2,000 km and is equipped with various advanced features. It has a probable error of 10 meters. These Agni systems are precision-based.”
The DRDO further stated, “the first-of-its-kind launch was carried out from a specially designed rail-based mobile launcher with the capability to move on the rail network without any preconditions. It provides cross-country mobility and can launch within a short reaction time with reduced visibility. Furthermore, they added that it is self-sustained and equipped with independent launch capability features, including state-of-the-art communication systems and protection mechanisms.” The missile trajectory was tracked by various ground stations, and it was a textbook launch that met all mission objectives. This successful test will enable the induction of futuristic rail-based systems into service. The road-mobile Agni-P has already been inducted into service after a series of successful flight trials.
To understand the impact of this missile, we have to see the overall scenario developing in South Asia. First, during Operation Sindoor (2025), the Indian Army used twenty-three AI applications for intelligence fusion, threat assessment, and predictive modeling. Lieutenant General Rajiv Kumar Sahni stated that the aim was to achieve “strategic dominance,” citing the Electronic Intelligence Collation and Analysis System (ECAS), which processed 26 years of data with “over 90 percent accuracy.” He further added that Systems such as Trinetra and Project Sanjay provided a common operational picture, while AI-assisted meteorological models enabled precision artillery strikes deep inside adversary territory. Sahni confirmed that India is developing a military large-language model and a comprehensive AI command framework for future operations—the first open acknowledgment of AI integration across all domains.
Apart from these development, India has already planned to expand the use of AI. In July 2025, India released an AI roadmap for 2026–2027, outlining large-scale AI deployment across operational, logistical, and intelligence domains. The plan aims to accelerate command decisions, reduce cognitive load, and create a “military nervous system that can sense, decide, and act faster than the adversary.” India also intends to retrofit legacy systems with AI, integrating older platforms into its emerging digital command network.Complementing this, reports from June 2025 indicated that India will accelerate the launch of fifty-two AI-enabled military satellites equipped for real-time image analysis, inter-satellite communication, and autonomous tasking. India is attempting to increase the speed of the OODA loop.
The Indian Integrated Defence Chief said, “Future wars will be won by those who complete the OODA loop fast.” This means the next conflict between India and Pakistan could occur at machine speed. AI can process data faster and help locate TEL launchers, which rely on movement to remain safe in a transparent battlefield environment.
Additionally, there are geographical factors that reduce the distance between India and Pakistan. The flight time of missiles is under ten minutes. Secondly, the missile is canisterized with the warhead, meaning they are mated together, which reduces the preparation time required to fire a missile.
This missile, along with other systems, can accelerate Pakistan’s threat perception. Recently, the Indian Army Chief spoke of “erasing Pakistan from the map,” while Defence Minister Rajnath Singh threatened that future actions could “change geography and history.” One nuclear-armed state can only threaten another nuclear nation with “erasure” if it believes it can do so without being erased itself—this is when counterforce strike capabilities come into play. The Agni-P thus becomes an element of India’s counterforce capability, which does not align with the Indian Stated Nuclear doctrine.
These developments are taking place at a time when destabilizing capabilities are increasing and mechanisms to prevent war are weakening. Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff General Sahir Shamshad Mirza said, “There is no formalized conflict resolution or management mechanism at the moment. The Director-General of Military Operations of both countries has a hotline that is regularly used on Tuesdays to exchange issues and information, and is available for use at any time in case of any untoward situation. However, this is the only option available.”
Furthermore, the third mechanism between Pakistan and India has weakened and, in fact, become politicized. Even sporting events have become politicized—there was not even a handshake between the India and Pakistan cricket teams after the recent matches in the Asia Cup, and the Indian team did not even participate in the final ceremony because the Chairman of the Pakistan Cricket Board was present there. In this scenario, such missile experiments are further going to destabilize the region because if a sporting event becomes so political, what hope is left for discussions on issues such as arms control and establishing a code of conduct for emerging technologies.
In this scenario, peace can only be ensured through the strengthening of deterrence. Although Pakistan has historically adopted a responsible nuclear posture, these developments might compel it to change its nuclear posture according to the evolving dynamics of the region. Furthermore, Pakistan might feel the need to accelerate the development of missiles to increase the number of missiles and TEL launchers to ensure deterrence and peace in response to the destabilizing developments by India.
At last, the Indian Agni-P missile test, in combination with other technologies, is putting the region into a destabilizing environment. Pakistan should always strive for peace; however, in the situation it is facing, peace can come only through the strengthening of deterrence.
Author: Nimra Javed, Research Officer Center for International Strategic Studies AJK
