In twenty first century, wars are not only fought with conventional weapons but are also contested in cyber domain through computer networks, information systems, and digital infrastructure. In this transformation, Artificial Intelligence has added a new dimension. AI is reshaping cyber warfare by enabling more sophisticated, faster and automated cyber operations. However, the central concern is not only that AI makes cyberattacks more powerful but the main concern is that there is faster advancement in technological capabilities as compared to the international mechanisms for the management of consequences.
Hacking, disruption of digital infrastructure, and espionage were the activities used in traditional cyber warfare. However, these activities are transformed through AI which enables malicious actors to analyze large amount of data, identify the vulnerabilities in system, and generate phishing messages. Traditionally, these tasks needed considerable time and technical expertise while in modern era, these tasks can be performed with more efficiency and greater speed. Consequently, this transformation reduces the barriers to cyber warfare while allowing smaller states and non-state actors to challenge technologically advanced countries.
Prior to the integration of AI into cyber operations, the destructive potential of cyber warfare was already evident. The Not Petya attack of 2017 demonstrated that how a cyber operation can create disruption far beyond its original target. This attack quickly affected organizations thereby disrupting government institutions, critical services and businesses across the world. This attack showed that a cyber-attack originating in one country can produce widespread international damage. Even though, Not Petya was not an AI-powered attack, but still, it gives an important warning that cyber operations can create widespread consequences that extend beyond the geographical boundaries. Moreover, the scale and speed of such operations in an AI-enabled environment can become more difficult to control.
The Equifax Data Breach in 2017 provides another case study of cyber-attack in United States in which cybercriminals obtained the personal information of about 147 million US citizens without authorization by exploiting vulnerability in the Equifax online application. This incident shows that the weaknesses in digital infrastructure can threaten corporations and governments as well as citizens. It is evident now that the sensitive data, personal information and financial records have become valuable targets in the digital environment. AI can intensify this further.
These two incidents uncover a significant reality that cyber warfare is not just a military or technical concern but also it is a matter of human security, economic security and public safety. The NotPetya and Equifax manifested the possibility of widespread disruption and exposed the vulnerability of individuals and their personal information respectively. However, AI adds another layer to these existing risks as it makes cyber operations more adaptive, efficient and difficult to defend. Therefore, the threat not only exists in what AI can do independently but it lies in how AI can increase the consequences of existing cyber vulnerabilities.
Another major challenge is the attribution because attackers can easily hide their identities and operate across borders. Furthermore, AI increases the speed and sophistication of cyberattacks. Therefore, effective response becomes difficult without clear attribution and misattribution can create tensions or retaliation against the wrong actor. As a result, AI-enabled cyber warfare can weaken traditional approaches to deterrence.
In addition, AI-enabled cyber operations may increase geopolitical risk as states can use them to weaken their rivals without a direct war. With fast-moving operations and limited reliable information, escalation becomes a serious risk. At the same time, AI should not be seen as a threat only because it can also strengthen cybersecurity by detecting any unusual activity, enabling faster responses and identifying vulnerabilities. Since, the same technology can be use for both offense and defense, its dual-use nature can make regulation difficult and can also create urgent need for responsible development and deployment.
The challenge is even greater for developing countries because resources are limited infrastructure is weak and skilled professionals are scarce. The growing dependence of these countries on services, when cybersecurity investment does not match, creates many vulnerabilities. The NotPetya attack shows how cyber incidents can spread across borders. The Equifax breach shows how poor data protection can hurt millions. These lessons are very important, for the countries that expand digitalization before they build the institutions needed to secure it.
These challenges must be addressed. States must strengthen cooperation. States must improve information sharing. States must set up crisis communication channels. States must create regulations that encourage behavior. Moreover, in AI‑enabled military and cyber operations more human oversight is needed. Human oversight must protect infrastructure.
Author: Sughra Ashraf, Research Intern, Center for International Strategic Studies, AJK.
1 comment
Well explained