Strategic stability in South Asia remains hostage to India’s strategic thought and its hegemonic ambitions. Its growing ties with the West and its label as a “Net Security Provider” have fueled ultra-nationalist delusion of grandeur. Aspiring for global power, India indulges in massive arms acquisitions, fosters a false sense of superiority, rejects de-escalation, and pursues destabilizing doctrines under the nuclear overhang.
It is Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence that has compelled India to scale down its aggressive war doctrines – from Sunderji Doctrine of Pakistan’s dissection to Dynamic Response Strategy of “limited sub-threshold punitive actions.” This climb down is, in itself, a strategic success for Pakistan.
At home, India’s Hindutva ideology has fueled radicalization, hate, and persecution of minorities. We are witnessing the Saffronization of the Indian military, which is having an impact on its policies and professionalism. The Doval Doctrine promotes terrorism as state policy, targeting dissidents abroad, supporting militancy in Pakistan, conducting false-flag operations, and institutionalizing extremism.
The post Pahalgam skirmish, imposed on Pakistan by India, epitomizes its hegemonic mindset. While India seeks to impose a so-called “new normal,” the reality reflects its reckless and dangerous pursuit of dominance. Let us examine what Modi claims is the “New Normal” versus what is the “Actual New Normal”. There are three strands of Modi’s professed New Normal:
- First strand is that “any terrorist attack on Indian soil will be met with assured and proportionate response”. There are 36 separatist movements spanning across 14 states in India. Modi has imposed upon himself the compulsion to militarily respond to every so-called terrorist attack in India, by any member of these 36 separatist movements, giving a formal role to Non-State Actors in South Asian security dynamics. Nothing could be more irresponsible.
- Second strand is that “India would no longer be deterred by Nuclear Blackmail in its resolve to strike terrorist sanctuaries across the border”. There have also been irresponsible statements about calling Pakistan’s Nuclear Bluff. Nuclear blackmail is the threat of a state or non-state actor using nuclear weapons to force the behavior of a nation. It is coercive, not defensive – It’s about forcing a change in behavior, not just deterring attack. Full Spectrum Deterrence is meant to prevent Indian military offensive by threatening a calibrated nuclear response. The logic is defensive, hence cannot be termed as nuclear blackmail. Moreover, there can be no compellance between two nuclear powers. Indian leaders and officials consistently gave statements about Indian actions as “measured, non-escalatory, proportionate and responsible”. This was because Indian leadership is aware that Pakistan’s strategic capability is “No Bluff”. This restraint demonstrated by India was essentially a consequence of their belief in the credibility of Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence.
- And lastly “India will not differentiate between terrorists and the governments that harbour them”. It is India that has been exposed as a state sponsoring terrorism inland and abroad. In addition to number of false flag operations in India, murder of Sikh separative leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar by Indian agents in Canada in 2023, charging an Indian intelligence officer, Vikash Yadav, in connection with a foiled plot to assassinate another Sikh separatist advocate, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, on American soil and confession by Commander Kulbhushan Yadav, an Indian serving Navy officer arrested by Pakistan in 2016, who admitted to collaborating with Baloch separatists and conducting covert operations to fuel bloodshed and anarchy in Balochistan and other regions of Pakistan are just a few examples of India, as a state sponsoring global terrorism.
The “Actual New Normal” is that:
- Marka e Haq has sent clear message of resilience – Pakistan will not allow its sovereignty to be violated and any attack will be responded to with Quid Pro Quo Plus.
- Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence has strengthened, forcing India to subdue its aggressive military doctrines and exercising restraint despite superiority in conventional forces and military spendings.
- Pakistan’s military victory has undermined India’s reputation as a military power and shattered its ambition of regional dominance, altering the region’s power dynamics and rehyphenating Pakistan with India.
- India could neither garner international support to criticize Pakistan nor muster any international support for its aggression even from its allies.
- Kashmir has re-emerged as a nuclear flashpoint which the world recognizes must be resolved.
- Pakistan emerged as the more disciplined, restrained, responsible and resolute actor in this skirmish.
The enduring threat to the long-term peace and stability of this region emanates from the Kashmir dispute that has remained unresolved since 1947. It lies at the heart of every crisis between Pakistan and India. There are six lessons that India and the West should take from the recent skirmish:
- First, India needs to reconsider its strategic thought and policies, must learn to live with its neighbours in peace as its aspiration for regional hegemony is not possible.
- Second, India is an unreliable partner to the West and is incapable of being “Net Security Provider”.
- Third, India must address rising extremism within its masses and put a stop to its state sponsorship of terrorism, both inland and abroad.
- Fourth, Efficacy of Pakistan’s Full-Spectrum Deterrence posture remained intact, which is aimed at offsetting India’s conventional advantage at every level of conflict. India cannot achieve its aims through military adventurism.
- Fifth, Pakistan’s resilience is unlimited but strategic restraint is not.
- And finally, enduring peace in South Asia is not possible without resolution of Kashmir issue.
India is a revisionist State and irresponsible nuclear actor bent upon upending strategic stability in South Asia. Modi’s delusions of his professed new normal may lead to a more intense conflict in the near future. The international community must remain cognizant of the impending crisis. The actual new normal is that Pakistan will not accept Indian hegemony in the region and will give a befitting response to any Indian aggression.
