The Indian Ocean, the third largest ocean after the Pacific and Atlantic, is again in the spotlight following the recent four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025. Once considered a secondary theatre, the sea could become a main battlefield in future conflict between the two South Asian nuclear-armed neighbours. This maritime region could serve as a new theatre of conflict alongside air and land. India`s ongoing naval modernisation, characterised by the expansion of nuclear submarines and warships, could alter security dynamics in the region. India`s increasing sea-based capabilities, supported by strategic partnerships with the United States and other powers, could turn the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) into a new conflict zone, particularly complicating the India-Pakistan crisis. Consequently, Pakistan is prompted to invest in and modernise its naval fleet and acquire new technologies to strengthen its maritime capabilities. This article re-evaluates the naval aspects of a potential India-Pakistan conflict.
India`s Growing Sea-Based Capabilities
The past few years have seen increased efforts by India to potentially increase its regional influence in the Indian Ocean, which it aspires to. To achieve this, New Delhi has expanded its presence in several states along the Indian Ocean coast, particularly in Oman, Seychelles, Madagascar, Iran, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and most of the Ocean`s smaller island nations. Additionally, India has established a more tangible presence in key maritime areas of the Ocean, especially in the Bay of Bengal through initiatives like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the Andaman Sea. At the same time, India has enhanced relationships with countries having overseas territories in the Indian Ocean, including the United States, the United Kingdom and France.
In recent years, India’s power projection in and around the Indian Ocean has become increasingly noticeable. India aims to make the Indian Ocean “India’s Ocean.” India`s naval expansion has included the addition and deployment of warships, submarines, frigates, and corvettes. India is pursuing a large military navy programme to extend its influence across the IOR. In 2024, India allocated a record $20bn domestic defence manufacturing. Similarly, India plans to significantly boost its naval capabilities through a substantial shipbuilding programme with a massive fund allocation of $28bn. The plan includes 17 warships and 9 submarines. This complements the existing fleet of 61 warships and submarines, which are being built indigenously. All of this forms part of a broader strategy to expand the Indian Navy to 175 ships by 2035.
Power Projection Beyond IOR
India’s acquisition of a sea-based nuclear deterrent marks a significant development in the region. The functioning of INS Arihant and INS Arighaat, with further addition of INS Aridhaman in late 2025, equip India with ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) capable of launching K-4 (3,500 km) and K-15 (750 km) missiles. With new addition of K-5 with projected range of 5000 to 8000 km will redefine India’s nuclear posture by potentially hitting target from Europe to East Asia: These submarines, with varying ranges of submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), have not only the potential to hit Pakistan from its location, but with K-5, it goes beyond threatening the European and the American security interests. In recent development, the newly built INS Varsha base near Rambilli, is due to be functional next year, offering secure facilities for submarines to patrol. India justifies these developments as a response to the presence of the Chinese naval force.
The US Role
The US’s persistent support for India under the strategic partnership between the two countries reinforces India’s regional hegemonic ambitions while maintaining the four military agreements between New Delhi and Washington. The Joint Indo-US naval exercises, often refining anti-submarine warfare, boost India’s maritime capabilities. The Washington designation of New Delhi as a “net security provider” in the broader Asia-Pacific Strategy appears threatened for the security and defence of Islamabad. While the US focuses on China’s global rise, the unintended pressure on Pakistan—already constrained by limited naval resources—cannot be ignored. This alignment amplifies Pakistan’s sense of strategic encirclement.
Role of the Navy in future Pakistan-India Conflicts
Amid the ceasefire intact, the Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s remarks and Pakistan`s naval preparedness highlight the growing role of maritime forces could play in future conflicts. The recent four-day conflict between Pakistan and India witnessed the use of both conventional and modern warfare. But there may be a more important role of the navy in future. The Indian defence minister’s remarks about the leading role of the Indian navy in future conflict with Pakistan signify a more assertive naval posture in future conflict. India`s growing sea-based capabilities, alongside its assertive naval posture, are threatening strategic stability in the region. India’s increasing sea-based capabilities, both in the conventional and nuclear domains, could potentially lead to miscalculations through a false sense of superiority, thereby risking a perilous nuclear escalation.
Consequently, Pakistan may be forced to strengthen its naval capabilities and maintain deterrence against India. Following the recent conflict with India, Pakistan initiated a more frequent, integrated joint operational exercise with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) to further reinforce synergy and interoperability between the two services. Currently, Pakistan is outnumbered by India’s 17 conventional submarines. India plans to include six additional nuclear-powered attack submarines under Project 75i. New Delhi’s potential to dominate critical sea lanes in the IOR threatens Islamabad’s economic lifelines, as 95% of its trade traverse these routes. Regarding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), its dependence on the Gwadar deep seaport is prone to Indian naval interdiction. This might not only weaken Pakistan’s maritime security, but it also intensifies its strategic vulnerability in a crisis. With the launch of Pakistan`s Navy’s second Hangor-class submarine, Pakistan`s maritime capabilities would be strengthened further. The submarine is included in an eight-vessel deal signed between Pakistan and China in 2015.
Pakistan has already acquired under sea nuclear capability, further enhancing its nuclear deterrent against India. The addition of Hangor-class submarines with advanced weapons and sensors will be vital to maintaining strategic balance in the region. Pakistan should also organise naval exercises with China, Turkey and Gulf nations. Defense agreements may be signed to bolster maritime security in the IOR. Naval confidence-building measures and diplomatic engagements may be promoted as an effective instrument of nuclear risk reduction. For Pakistan, it is important to acquire capabilities, including maritime patrol aircraft, electronic warfare system, and underwater drones to counter the potential threats.
Conclusion
India`s naval modernization, both in the conventional and nuclear domains, is impacting the regional security dynamics of South Asia. This necessitates countermeasures by Pakistan to further enhance its deterrent capabilities vis-à-vis India. The international community should take steps to strengthen strategic stability in the region and keep a check on India`s military modernization, a country outside the NPT but receiving benefits from the US West.
Author: Mr. Musavir Hameed Barech is currently serving as Research Officer at Balochistan Think Tank Network, Quetta, Pakistan and can be reached at email: musavirkhan88@gmail.com
