India, yet again, has issued the NOTAM for large-scale tri-services military drills involving the army, navy, and air force, effective from October 30 to November 10 on its western borders near Pakistan. More than just an exercise, it is a display of power and force. This has become frequent after the recent clash between India and Pakistan this year following the Pahalgam Incident. Prior to the May conflict, India was vouching to become a recognized global leader, however, the humiliating defeat against Pakistan bruised India’s image of being a strong military power. Since then, India has been trying hard to reassert its image of being a regional powerhouse through further acquisition of enhanced military equipment and weaponry, a strategy that projects insecurity rather than strength.
The recent conflict in May revealed that India had serious flaws in its strategic calculus. What was meant to be a quick punitive campaign against Pakistan following turned out to be an expensive and embarrassing episode for India – most remarkably, the Indian air force, which suffered an unexpected defeat in aerial combat. Additionally, its technological advantage was questioned and the swift development of events pushed India to a ceasefire under the pressure from the international community. Pakistan’s comparatively limited conventional capabilities vis-à-vis India, is mistaken to be a militarily weakness as India’s military budget is over eight times that of Pakistan. However, Pakistan had successfully defended itself; a fact that found a lot of resonance in the region. India, which boasts being an emerging regional power as one of the world’s largest economies, suffered incredible damage to its self-purported image and hubris.
Rather than reflecting on the wrong strategies that got it into the debacle, India has opted to cover its insecurities in an arms race on its own. New Delhi has, over the last few months, has conducted several missile tests, naval exercises, and high-profile defense announcements. Missiles such as the Agni-V, testing of MIRV technology, and BrahMos have been flaunted as a sign of revival. Closures of airspace, also known as NOTAMs, along its western border have become a norm, signaling presence as well as resentment. The Indian leaders claim that these are deterrent actions; however, such steps are a display of political actions that are supposed to mend India’s bruised ego.
The new militarism has a dual purpose; domestically, it nourishes the discourse of ‘strong India’ within the BJP – the patriotic cry just ahead of an election, diverting the attention from economic inequality, social issues, and military defeats. Secondly, at the international level, it tries to display India as an emerging power, equal to the great powers such as the United States, Russia, and China. However, this self-glorification fails to notice the inconvenient fact that military muscle does not necessarily make them morally or diplomatically authoritative.
Prior to this incident, India’s diplomatic stance had also become louder by choosing much bolder actions. Recently, the government had issued a very strong statement wherein they accuse the United States and Europe of adhering to ‘dual standards’ regarding the Russian oil imports. This might be morally right on its part, as the hypocrisy of the West cannot be dismissed, but the attitude showed a sense of increasing defensiveness, directly challenging the world powers. Such robust statements and missile tests, along with war games satisfy India’s strong desire to be seen as a power symbol. However, the real strength does not reside in the number of missile tests rather in the degree to which a state remains accurate in its diplomacy and strategy. The foreign policy of India is becoming progressively reactive: it responds to the criticisms of the West, it shows off to Pakistan when embarrassed, and it flaunts its deterrence to China while relying on American alliances as the means of keeping the latter in check.
This approach comes with its risks. India is projecting aggression which will not be even acceptable to its own partners such as US, let alone its enemies such as China and Pakistan. India’s aggression lacks institutional maturity of cohesive strategy and foreign policy, resulting in increased prospects of isolating itself in the global arena. With the defeat against Pakistan, India has tarnished its projection as a global leader. Regional states views India’s assertiveness as aggressive and domineering. On the other hand, China benefits quietly with India’s attitude in the region and thereby effectively exerts its influence across the Asia Pacific and South Asia.
The recent Indo-Pak conflict should have made India reflect on its aggressive policies, but it rather became a pretext for militarization and maximizing its arms and missile. India needs to focus on restraint rather than aggression before the situation escalates to a dangerous level that Indian leadership may not want in the first place.
Author: Ms. Nomeen Kassi is a Research Assistant at Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), Quetta. She is an MS-IR scholar focusing on South Asia and Artificial Intelligence. She closely observes the Indo-Pak relations.
