While giving her introductory remarks at the book launch ceremony of Strategic Reckoning: Perspectives on Deterrence and Escalation Post-Pahalgam – May 2025, Dr. Asma Shakir Khawaja said that “the book gives us a rare opportunity to pause and reflect on a crisis that has not only changed the conversation in South Asia, but has also forced us to rethink how deterrence, doctrine, and technology interact in this region.
We are fortunate to have with us several of the contributors whose chapters form the backbone of this book and also the editor herself – Dr Rabia.
The book eloquently examines the varieties of dimension of MAY 2025 crisis.
- For instance, Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal has examined the strengths and vulnerabilities of our conventional deterrence posture with exceptional clarity.
- Dr. Zahir Kazmi has unpacked the doctrinal drift on the Indian side, especially how counterforce thinking, MIRVs, and compressed timelines are reshaping strategic calculations.
- Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi has laid out how multidomain retaliation and grey-zone operations manifested during the crisis.
- Syed Ali Zia Jaffery has written on crisis signaling and the grammar of deterrence, reminding us why communication failures can escalate even limited scenarios.
Although he is not here today, Ambassador Masood Khan’s chapter adds essential political context, tracing the buildup to the crisis.
My compliments to all authors who are not here, together, these contributions show that this book covers almost every aspect of modern conflict: political roots, force postures, doctrines, technology, narratives, and crisis communication.
I would also like to acknowledge the leadership of Prof. Dr. Rabia Akhtar, whose vision and steady hard work made this book a reality.
Now, after we look at these chapters, we must recognize that South Asia is entering a new era one that is fast, unpredictable, and technologically saturated.
Most importantly, every new development, whether global or regional, circles back to our own stability.
I would prefer to give an overview of what is happening around the world in the field of technology. This way, when they read the book, they will think more critically to ask the important questions of our time, the most suitable way to welcome our worthy authors, engage them with the ideas they care about, and help spark new debates.
My dear esteemed audience, it is important to recognize that there are major global and regional changes unfolding around us. In South Asia, one way to understand this moment is through what I describe as a Tri-compression conflict environment.
It is significant to see the world in which those arguments now operate.
First, we have compressed time, where hypersonic missiles reduce reaction windows from minutes to seconds. Dr. Zahir has written very powerfully about it in the Strategic Forecast Blog published by CISS AJK and how this compression affects deterrence and crisis behavior.
Second, we have compressed cognition, where decision-makers must interpret vast amounts of data under enormous pressure. AI, automation, and the pace of conflict add psychological stress that is difficult to manage.
Third, we have compressed space, because South Asia’s geography is already tight, and new technologies like long-range precision fires, drones, and space-based ISR overlap across domains.
Into this already compressed environment come the complexity accelerants:
• electronic warfare, which can blind or mislead sensors,
• cyber operations, which can disrupt military networks,
• information operations, which shape perceptions in real time,
• and AI-enabled systems that can indirectly influence NC2 and NC3 environments by shortening timelines and creating overconfidence in automated outputs.
Here I want to mention the work of Dr. Michael Raska and becomes relevant. He explains how AI is reshaping the classic OODA loop Observe, Orient, Decide, Act which has guided airpower for decades. With AI, these loops no longer unfold in sequence. They begin to merge, creating what he calls “Super-OODA Loops.”
Globally, there are efforts to compress the sensor-to-shooter timeline to twenty seconds from detection to engagement. These “proto-loops” have been achieved in controlled settings.
The implications for South Asia are enormous. When timelines collapse, miscalculations can travel faster than diplomacy. A technical error can look like a hostile act. A malfunction can resemble an attack.
All of this becomes even more challenging when strategic communication between India and Pakistan remains fragile. We have only one functioning hotline. Even cultural gestures like sports diplomacy have collapsed our cricketers do not even receive a handshake. A pertinent question is, If political trust cannot survive symbolism, how will it survive hypersonics, cyber intrusions, or a misinterpreted AI-generated alert?
And yet, technology will not slow down. technology is changing dynamic with hypersonic speed and every day there is a new news coming which reduce the value of previous development to a large extent. When large language Model came, there was so much enthusiasm about them. There is still billion dollars investment going in them. Elon Musk is expected dollars pay package. Others warn of an AI bubble.
First, we thought AI race is about semi-conductors, now experts are saying it is about electricity. But what is certain is that AI large Language models, small models, battlefield-specific models will influence how militaries plan, react, and signal but to what extent we have to see.
Parallel revolutions in precision medicine, genomics technologies such as CRISP, and DNA analytics offer huge opportunities for human development, but they are also deeply dual-use, complicating the risk landscape for developing countries. For instance, data stored for precision medicines can be used for making virus for specific segment of the society.
Space is also becoming a source of competition which world haven’t seen before. Golden Doom systems is proposed which is likely to have capability to shoot missiles in the booster stage. There are also efforts going on to put satellites and other technologies in Cis-lunar orbit.
Even as one my own research officer Nimra Javed has written for the Lowey Institute: Nuclear Reactors are enabling new eco-system for the moon mining and countries are signing agreements for Helium-3 which will shape the future of quantum technologies supply chain.
Everyone talks about the information warfare but there is something more deeper going on here. Due to these AI models, there is opening for everyone. If you will have more information on the internet then you can shape the narratives of next generations. This why we see, Elon Musk has launched Grokpedia. It is a competitor to Wikipedia.
So everything being developed internationally, the doctrinal debates, the technological shifts eventually comes back home to South Asia. It comes back to a region with nuclear weapons, tight geography, limited communication, political volatility, and now, technologies that accelerate every part of a crisis.
In this scenario, I would again congratulate Dr Rabia Akhter and all authors on their timely contributions for this book. These types of books bridge the gap between doctrinal evolution and technological growth.
We need to more of these publications. We need more think tanks and researcher who can put our perspective forward with academic depth and factual support.”
Author: Dr Asma Shakir Khawaja, Executive Director, Center for International Strategic Studies, AJK.
